End of the spring session of the State Duma on July 7 Vladimir Poutine he used to sum up the course of the “special operation” in Ukraine and send some signals outside before the start of the diplomatic holidays. The first is: “you failed to destroy us”, that is, Russia is stronger than the West assumed. A clear success from the Kremlin’s perspective is that the country survived the economic blitzkrieg and did not collapse despite having more than 11,000 people. penalties imposed on him. Another proof is that it was not possible to “demoralize the people”, to provoke the chaos and the protests which were to shatter the state from within.

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To fear!

The second message to the world is “bojcies’” (to be afraid). “We hear that they want to beat us on the battlefield. What can I say? Let them try, Putin told the Duma. A day later, these words had to be corrected by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who explained that the president had not frightened anyone, he had merely referred to statements by Western politicians and Ukrainian authorities that Kyiv would fight until Putin therefore simply reminded that the potentials of both sides are disproportionate, and that Russia is so big that only a small part of it is currently involved in a “special operation” – as later quoted the TASS agency.

On the other hand, Putin’s third message to the world is: “the time of your domination is over”. In the opinion of the Russian president, the West has not yet realized that it “already lost when the special operation began”. It was she who initiated the process of emergence of a new world order in which “there are no hypocritical double standards, but the rules of international law and nations are in fact sovereign”.

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Russian point of view

Putin is convinced that it is not Russia alone in this clash, but “the collective West”, as he describes his adversaries in the propaganda. “We have many supporters, also in the United States and Europe, and even more in other continents,” he boasted. He added: “Even in countries that are still US satellites, there is a growing understanding that it is not in their interest to blindly obey a sovereign.” For good reason Sergei Lavrov makes an endless diplomatic pilgrimage through Asia and Africa, and Sputnik and Russia Today, operating freely outside the West, are very successful in promoting the Russian point of view.

The most important message to the Western elite, however, is that the Kremlin does not reject peace negotiations. You should hurry, because “the further this all goes, the more difficult it will be to negotiate with us,” Putin stressed. In fact, he’ll be ready to talk as soon as he completes the takeover process. Donbass and the consolidation of control over the land belt connecting Russia to Crimea.

He will first announce the liberation of the Donbas republics, and in August the Supreme Court will decide whether Defenders of Mariupol, including the soldiers of the Azov regiment, are terrorists or enjoy the status of prisoners of war. The demonstration trial will play the “success of denationalization” of Ukraine in a propagandistic way, and the razing of other cities – to recognize the “neutralization of the military potential” of kyiv as the achieved goal. Most likely in September in Kherson there will be a referendum on joining the region to the Federation, which means that the Novorossiya project may become a fact. And then the peace negotiations can be carried on indefinitely.

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Putin is running out of time

However, the circumstances are not as favorable for Russia as Putin presented them. The country is at a point where it has exhausted its military potential, and to make serious progress it should have announced an official mobilization and placed the country under martial law. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia has exhausted its arguments as well, as it increasingly puts pressure on Belarus and the CSTO countries to bolster its ranks and support the “special operation”. Because what is the alternative? Russia can live up to its threats (but in this scenario an announcement will be needed universal mobilization) or opt for diplomatic talks. The latter, however, requires good preparation of the ground.

Putin’s last speech in the Duma served this purpose. For more than 20 years, he has been a player in world politics, so he knows all its informal mechanisms well. He knows that any isolation can be broken, and that business and peace of mind are very tempting for the Western elite. So he has a stick, he also has a carrot, but he doesn’t have much time. By autumn at the latest, he will not be able to hide the economic crisis in Russia and the fact that the sanctions are in fact reversing the development of his country, making it politically and economically dependent on China.

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War. The decisive weeks

Until then, Putin must instill hope in the Western elite that the already tiring war can realistically be ended. His offer is therefore a trap, and a fishing rod is an alternative: immediate talks or a long-term war of exhaustion. Currently Heads of State FOR THAT predict that the “long march” scenario is the most likely. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, however, reminds that the best way to end the war is to constantly help Ukraine and support it in its military victory. This is what Moscow wants to avoid. She is interested in ending the war at the most favorable time and on her terms.

If the head of the Ukrainian intelligence services, Kyryło Budanov, is right and visible results of the actions of the Ukrainian army will appear no later than August, the negotiating position of the Kremlin will weaken considerably and Kyiv, rather than Moscow, can negotiate hard. Today, all the Kremlin’s hope and Ukraine’s risk lies in a prosaic but sacred holiday break. These few weeks of summer can make the ruling elite of the wealthy bourgeois West effectively break away from the subject of war, enjoy peace of mind, and after the holidays they will return full of energy and spirit. engagement for … interviews with Sergey Lavrov.

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