Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) reported that Belarus is preparing to receive 20,000. Russian conscripts in existing homes, warehouses and abandoned farm buildings. Engineering work was also reported at Luninets airport in Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, and the dispatch of Russian planes su-30 at Baranavichy airport.
This information may indicate that Russia wants to use the Belarusian infrastructure to detain and possibly train newly mobilized Russian troops there, but it remains extremely unlikely that this is indicative of Belarus’ imminent direct participation in the war alongside Russia, the TI assesses.
The Ukrainian General Staff said there was no sign of Russia forming a strike group to attack the northern part of Ukraine. This, in turn, suggests that despite reports of a stockpiling of troops and equipment Russian troops are unlikely to use Belarus as a location to conduct ground attacks against Ukraine – says the think tank.
The HEI had previously estimated that Belarus’ entry into the war would entail too high internal costs for the country’s leader, Alexander Lukashenka. According to the think tank, however, Russia is unable to create a ground strike force in Belarus from existing units in a short time.
In the latest report, the Institut d’art contemporain points out that The Kremlin continues to violate the principles of “partial mobilization” it announced. According to a study by the independent Levada Center, half of those polled in Russia express concern about the mobilization, but support for the actions of the Russian army has dropped only slightly since August, to 44%.
Meanwhile Ukrainian forces at the front they probably almost completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping near Lyman in the Donbass and cut off the land lines of communication of the Russian troops in the Drobyszewe-Lyman area. In the Kherson region of southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics centers and military installations.
Ukrainian military officials remained silent on the maneuvers of Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region, but reported that the Russians were sending newly mobilized soldiers to the front. Russian troops have also most likely increased the use of Iranian Shahed-136 combat drones in southern Ukraine, reports ISW.
