Russian Central Bank experts: mobilization has a negative impact on economic activity, there is a shortage of workers
As RBC experts state in a comment quoted by Bloomberg, “at the end of September, the recovery in economic activity came to a halt and trends deterioratedA partial mobilization – according to them – worsened the already very bad situation with the shortage of employees and “had a negative impact on the mood of consumers and entrepreneurs”.
The shift in sentiment should “temporarily slow the rebound in consumption levels at the start of the fourth quarter.” In turn, “declining worker numbers due to mobilization may complicate companies’ efforts to address issues related to supply constraints and reduce economic activity in the months ahead.”
The document also says that the effects of the sanctions on oil and high technology “have yet to be felt”.
What does it mean? Experts – although not explicitly – admit that Russia is afraid of the consequences of sanctions, and the situation is already very bad, because it is said that companies are struggling to meet the demand for an already weakened demand. Thus, the previous forecasts of the experts who indicated that the “partial” mobilization will be a very heavy burden for the Russian economy.
The Russian Central Bank forecasts a fall in Russian GDP of 4 to 6%. in 2022
As Zabotkin said last TuesdayRussian GDP will shrink by 4-6% in 2022. According to forecasts by the Russian central bank, the Russian economy should start to rebound in the first half of 2023.
According to Zabotkin, the neutral interest rate in Russia is 5-6%, and inflation in 2022 is expected to reach 11-13%. The Central Bank of Russia expects inflation to slowly approach the inflation target, which in Russia is 4%. However, this will not happen quickly, as “economic transformation requires large-scale adjustment in the prices of products and services”.
Rate the quality of our article:
Your feedback helps us create better content.
