This is the second reading of the GDP indicator of the American economy. The third estimate is expected to be presented on March 28. The first estimate calculated that on an annualized basis, where quarterly data is transformed into annual data, the economy grew by 3.3%. year-on-year, i.e. higher than forecast (2% year-on-year), although slower than the third quarter annualized data (4.9% year-on-year). On second reading we only have 3.2 percent. rdr.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculated and presented this data, also calculates the dynamics of the economy in a “normal” way. And that’s how we get it GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 3.1%. Every year according to seasonally adjusted data. In the previous quarter it was 2.9 percent, and before that 2.4 percent, so we can say that the world’s largest economy is accelerating.
If there were no seasonal adjustments, the increase would be 2.9%. year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared to 2.8 percent in the third quarter and 2.5 percent – in the second. Whether equalized or not, these are the best numbers since the first quarter of 2022. U.S. GDP increased to $7.1 trillion, an increase of $380 billion. from one year to the next in current dollars.
Comparing the situation of US competitors in the global economy, the Eurozone remained unchanged in the fourth quarter year-on-year, while Germany fell by 0.3%. y/y, Japan by 0.1 percent Year-on-year, China grew by just 1% and South Korea by 0.6%. Polish GDP increased by 1% in real terms. What drove the world’s largest economy?
Growth driven by consumption
Unadjusted exports increased 1.9%., and imports did not change from year to year, and although the United States had a negative trade balance of goods and services of $221 billion. In 2017 dollars, this negative balance decreased year over year by $12.1 billion. Here, the export of American hydrocarbons, including gas, has a significant impact.
Up to 2.4 percent individual consumption increases from year to year. Americans spent a total of $4 trillion. in the fourth quarter (in 2017 dollars), which exceeded the previous year’s results by $90 billion. By 2.3 percent Private investment spending increased to just over $1 trillion year-on-year, with a particular focus on infrastructure spending (+16% year-on-year) in non-residential buildings. residential.
But public spending recorded the largest increase. These increased by 4.1%. rdr according to unadjusted data, and reached $973 billion. (in 2017 dollars), or $38 billion. bigger from year to year. Federal spending for non-military purposes grew faster (+4.7% y/y) than that for military purposes (+3.2% y/y), and state and local spending increased the fastest (+4.9%).
