Already around 2035, China is expected to overtake the US, and India has a chance to catch up with the US economy by 2075. Countries like Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could become the largest economies in the world. world, according to economists at Goldman Sachs. valued.
A team of economists from Goldman Sachs has prepared a report providing long-term economic forecasts until 2075 for 104 countries around the world. It shows that although the economies of both developed and developing countries have slowed recently, the latter are growing faster than the former. Thus, according to expert estimates, the share of the economies of developing countries in world GDP will be higher and higher every year. The distribution of world income will also change – “average” economies will become increasingly important.
As noted in the report, in 2011 GDP growth in most economies was disappointing. However, it was noted that the economies of China, India and Indonesia slightly beat forecasts, while Russia, Brazil and Latin America performed worse than expected. As a result, economists have estimated that an increasing share of global GDP will shift to Asia over the next 30 years. Forecasts by Goldman Sachs specialists indicate that in 2050 the five largest economies will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia and Germany respectively.
“If we extend the projection horizon to 2075, then due to the prospect of rapid population growth in countries like Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt, it can be expected that with the right policies, these economies have a chance to become one of the biggest in the world” – it was written in the report. He added that India could become the world’s second largest economy by 2075, taking the place of the United States.
Economists say America’s “decade of exceptionalism” is unlikely to be repeated. As they pointed out, the US economy has proven to be an exception among developed nations, as its real GDP growth over the past decade has turned out to be higher than expected. However, according to Goldman Sachs specialists, the United States is unlikely to repeat this success and has a lower growth potential than the major economies of developing countries, including China and India. They also pointed out that the strength of the US dollar over the past few years has pushed it well above its true PPP value. [purchasing powery parity – parytet siły nabywczej, przyp. PAP]meaning it is more likely to lose value over the next 10 years.
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