Probably galloping inflation and the destabilization of the Polish currency have made Poles look more and more favorably on the euro. After all, people don’t need everyday fairy tales, but stability and at least a little predictability. And all this, despite flaws and shortcomings, legitimate criticism and garbage – this is what the eurozone offers.
In Poland, the years of domination of anti-European narratives in public space are over. Meanwhile, economists are able to enumerate the benefits lost by Poland due to the fact that the opportunity to adopt the single currency was never used. After joining the EU, Poland was lucky to follow suit. Just like the Baltic States and Slovakia did. How much have we lost? We have the opportunity to find out now.
– The illusion that the own currency creates a kind of buffer (…) is very risky, because the risk of a sharp depreciation of the zloty is not taken into account. For now, the anchor in the form of our presence in the EU is still working, but following a series of unfortunate statements (…) certain coincidences, there may be a crisis like in Great Britain. Brittany – he said Andrzej Wojtyna, professor at Krakow University of Economics, former member of the Monetary Policy Council at the Open Eyes Economy Summit congress in Krakow.
What happened in Great Britain? After former prime minister Liz Truss announced plans to cut taxes, there was a sharp outflow of capital and UK bonds lost almost a quarter of their value. Nearly half a trillion pounds left the country. The Prime Minister immediately resigned.
– In a war situation, some events can trigger an outflow of capital. Then the reaction of the central bank must be very strong to prevent the Turkish scenario – added Andrzej Wojtyna.
Additionally, the global economy, first due to the pandemic and now due to war, has entered a period of de-globalization. The result of de-globalization is the strengthening of regional cooperation. The common currency would greatly facilitate such cooperation at this time, bringing completely new benefits to Poland.
A former member of the MPC says that in 2004-2010 the Council followed closely how Slovakia was preparing to adopt the euro.
– In the past, Poland should have joined the euro zone or at least should have tried (…) In 2004-2010, the MPC saw such possibilities. With a lot of luck and the efforts of politicians, we could now be in the situation in Slovakia – said Andrzej Wojtyna.
The Poles realize this little by little. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, the majority, 56%, of us expressed support for the adoption of the European currency. 41 percent of respondents were against it. Moreover, more than half (51%) of the inhabitants of Poland think that the adoption of the euro would have positive effects on the national economy. 42 percent respondents had a different opinion. It should be remembered that by joining the EU, Poland had undertaken to adopt the euro, without, however, specifying when.
Opinion polls posted online from July 2021 to June 2022, conducted by the Foundation for Economic Freedom, also show growing support for the single currency among Internet users. The Eurosentiment Index calculated on this basis is 66, which means that the tone of online discussions in Poland is in favor of adopting the euro. Position analysis shows that nearly 40 percent. The Poles support the adoption of the common currency, less than 34% are against and more than a quarter have a neutral attitude towards it.
– After all, we have a majority of Poles (in favor of) joining the euro zone, because people have seen how weak the Polish zloty is – said Bartłomiej Nowak from the Vistula Academy.
At the same time, the euro area has undergone a great institutional evolution after the great global financial and debt crisis. A banking union and related institutions have been put in place – although not entirely – to prevent crises in the financial system. The European Stability Mechanism has been established and will be reinforced, a very complex and ambitious plan for a capital markets union is being drawn up and a social standards union is being designed. These institutions are giving new impetus to integration in the euro zone.
Slovakia, which has been part of the eurozone since 2009, adopted the single currency as the great global financial crisis raged and just before the Greek debt crisis erupted. This did not prevent its economy from growing rapidly, because of all post-communist countries, GDP growth was the fastest in Poland, but Slovakia ranks second.
Andrzej Wojtyna believes that joining the eurozone is in Poland’s best national interest. First, it would consolidate the achievements of Polish transformation and stop the erosion of the economic model. Second, it would significantly reduce the risk of polexit.
“Membership of the eurozone would reduce the risk of polexit,” he said.
The volunteers of the Euromisja association visited more than 100 Polish towns and villages, where they met people trying to explain what the euro zone is, the common currency and refuting the myths conveyed by politicians. They asked people why they thought the euro was bad.
– Most often, the opponents of the euro said that prices in Poland would increase, that we would be the second Greece, that we would face a crisis (…) The fact that we will not have our own currency will bring Poland to cease to be sovereign. These are the most important reasons – Aleksandra Kot, a student at Jagiellonian University and vice-president of the association, presented their opinions.
Economists agree that a similar opportunity, as lost in the first decade of the century, will now have to work and wait about a decade. But the discussion of how to do this to get the maximum benefit and minimize the risk should start now.
Jacek Ramotowski
