We describe the situation on the Ukrainian fronts every day. Yesterday the situation was like this.
The main changes are that the Ukrainian counterattack west of kyiv resulted in the capture of several localities. The Russian attempt to encircle the capital was halted for some time, but apparently the Russians had the situation under control and were trying to attack further. No big changes in the other episodes. Russian army in many places it advances, although it is often blocked by Ukrainians.
Kyiv region without breakthrough
The Ukrainian counter-offensive west of kyiv, which had attracted much attention in recent days, ended without a decisive outcome. An attempt to encircle the capital was halted for some time, but it was not possible to encircle the Russian troops heading south, if at all, that was the aim or possible. It is unclear with what force the Ukrainians attacked, but apparently after a little more than a day of fighting they were unable to advance. They kept part of the conquered land, and part of them was ousted. The counter-attacks further north, closer, ended without great success border With Belarus.
The situation west of kyiv after the Ukrainian counterattack was halted. Status at noon March 4 Photo Jaroslaw Wolski/map.army
Regardless of Ukrainian efforts, the Russians are still trying to break through to the south and continue to encircle Kyiv from the west. However, there are not many new photos and videos from this region. A video shows a small unit of Russian airborne troops in Bucza.
There are also many gruesome photos and recordings of a very similar unit run over by the Ukrainians in the same Bucza, but it is uncertain whether it is the same one. However, further south on itinerary On the highway from kyiv to Zhytomyr, the Ukrainians captured a new Russian T-72B3 tank and three armored personnel carriers without any visible damage. Perhaps they ran out of fuel due to logistical issues that will affect Russian troops in the area.
East of the capital, there were practically no revolutionary events, although it is obvious that the Russian leadership is in this area. Several tens of kilometers from the center of kyiv. The Ukrainian army has shared photos of a destroyed Russian tank and an armored personnel carrier near Boryspil, about 25 kilometers from the center of the capital. It is therefore obvious that while the Russian attack from the east has slowed considerably, it has not stopped.
Further north, the encircled Chernihiv continues to defend itself. For over a week now against vastly superior Russian forces. Ukrainians constantly report shelling of residential buildings and civilian casualties. Further east to the Russian border, the situation is unclear. The Russians had to march quickly through these areas to reach Kyiv, but a number of Ukrainian troops are still attempting limited counterattacks and attacks on supply columns. However, there are clearly fewer records and photos of destroyed or abandoned Russian equipment. It is difficult to say if the fighting in this region has simply died down and the Ukrainian resistance has weakened, or if something else has happened.
The situation in the northeast of Ukraine. From March 4 noon Photo. Jaroslaw Wolski / map.army
The Russians also appear to be trying to launch new forces further south, towards Poltava and the central area of eastern Ukraine. They constantly besiege Kharkiv, which they shell and shell with artillery. Some of their forces, however, bypassed the city and attacked from the south, trying to threaten the rear of the Ukrainian troops fighting in the Donbass.
In this Donbass, the Ukrainians are still fighting hard battles. Na has a lot of reliable information, but the Russians claim that their air force is very active there and inflicts heavy losses on the Ukrainians, who are supposed to have increasingly low morale. However, there are not many photos of destroyed Ukrainian equipment or prisoners, so whole units are unlikely to disintegrate.
An abandoned Ukrainian BTR-4 whose crew drove to a very bad place
It is obvious that the Russians and separatists they intend to encircle the city of Severodonetsk, the easternmost major city under Ukrainian control. The second major attack appears to be in the western part of Donbass, on the town of Volnovakha, which the Russians and separatists have already taken. Some Ukrainian prisoners and equipment were captured nearby. The Ukrainians responded by shooting down a Russian Su-25 attack plane and an Mi-8 helicopter that were looking for the pilot of the first craft.
South without revolution
In southern Ukraine, the most famous event of the past 24 hours was occupation of the Zaporozhian nuclear power plant by the Russianshowever, from a military perspective, it was a secondary or tertiary event. For the third day, heavy shelling continues on Mariupol, the largest Ukrainian city on the Sea of Azov. The aforementioned attack in the Volnova region cut them off from the rest of Ukraine. Russians fire on residential areas and attempt to storm suburbs, but no breakthrough so far. Further west, the Ukrainians reportedly managed to halt Russian attacks on Zaporizhia by securing one of the most important routes for troop withdrawals in the Donbass.
Situation in southern Ukraine. Noon March 4 Photo. Jaroslaw Wolski / map.army
On the western edge of the southern front, the Russians launched a stronger attack on Mykolaiv, blocking their path to Odessa, the largest Ukrainian city on the Black Sea. In the past 24 hours, fighting was expected to take place in this area, but the Russian army failed to enter Mikołajów itself. It is unclear how the Russians are doing in their attempt to encircle the city from the north. On Thursday, photos of several destroyed light vehicles in the area of the city of Voznesensk were published, but it is unclear whether this was part of a larger attack or an unsuccessful reconnaissance. . At this time, no other reports are available.
Once again, reports of an imminent sea landing in the Odessa region did not materialize. For now, it would be a very risky operation given Santa’s inability to break through.
A moment of breath or the end of strength?
Overall, the next day the situation on the fronts seems relatively stable. The mad raids of the Russians from the first days of the war ceased. The same goes for reckless city intrusions and easy ambushes. Unfortunately, this probably does not mean the loss of Russian offensive capability, but only a reorganization after a moderately successful first week of combat. According to Western intelligence data, almost all Russian forces gathered for the invasion are already in Ukraine. Units depleted from early fights can now be swapped out for newer, refreshed units. These are only guesses, but it must be done logically and in accordance with art.
A more optimistic explanation for the lack of large-scale Russian attacks could be ongoing logistical problems, which would be particularly troublesome for troops fighting in the north. The Ukrainians are clearly trying to carry out a guerrilla war in the Russian hinterland. The Russians do not really control the vast expanses of Ukraine, they have only crossed a few roads and occupied the most important towns and points with small forces. In addition, however, they had to fight a series of battles with the Ukrainians, who constantly conduct local counterattacks, which could significantly exhaust the Russian forces. This is also what the Ukrainian army itself says, according to which the Russians lack the strength to carry out new offensive operations and are starting to try to attract additional troops from other regions of Russia.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between. Many Russian troops can indeed be exhausted from a week of fighting and logistical issues, so they need a break. The Ukrainians will certainly also need a breather. However, it may be too optimistic to assume that after just one week the Russian war machine is collapsing.
