A description of the situation Sunday noon can be found here. For 24 hours, there were no changes that would be very visible on the map.
Everything indicates that the Russians have lost their first echelon of troops in crazy raids and are trying to seize as quickly as possible as much space and strategic points as possible. The initial war plan had obviously gone wrong with heavy casualties. Unfortunately, the Russians are still far from the bottom of the resource bag. There are clear signs that they are beginning to adapt to the new reality, though they are making slow progress and still suffering from serious issues with the entire command and supply system.
An interactive map prepared by Jarosław Wolski of “Nowa Techniki Wojskowej”, showing the estimated situation on the fronts. From Monday evening. There have been no major changes so far.
Take the capital in pincers
At the same time, there is no indication that Kyiv will cease to be their main objective, although they probably already realize that surrounding it or even capturing it (which is still a long way off, if that’s even possible) will not mean the end of the Ukrainian resistance. Just like in Sunday, there is obviously an attempt to maneuver to flank the city from the west. Images of tanks in the town of Makarov, about 40 kilometers from central kyiv, have surfaced.
Situation in the northern combat zone Photo. Jaroslaw Wolski/map.army
The Russians clearly reached the main highway leading from the capital to the west at some point and probably even blocked it, as there were recordings showing attacks by Ukrainian special forces on some vehicles on it .
Generally, Ukrainians do not allow Russians to take this trick without consequences. Fighting is taking place there and it is not certain that everything is going according to the Russian plan. On Monday morning, there were even records of a chilling Russian convoy destroyed in Borodzianka, another town in the region. But it was a logistics column, not heavy equipment like tanks.
At the same time, there would be no signals to reach the outskirts of Kyiv from other directions. To the northeast, in the Chernihiv region, the Ukrainians still seem to be successful in defending themselves and blocking attempts to circumvent their positions. Further east, the situation is less certain. The Russians have already traveled 250 kilometers from the east border and reached the area of the river Supij, which constitutes a significant obstacle to their further march. However, records of Russian tanks allegedly made at Bobrovica have emerged showing that they rounded the river from the north and entered the rear of Ukrainian troops in the Chernihiv region and reached about 60 kilometers from kyiv. From the same town, there were also recordings that allegedly showed the robbery of a grocery store by Russians.
The problem with the Russian troops attacking here is that they are already 250-300 kilometers from their starting positions and have left behind large Ukrainian forces, who are indeed attacking the columns with supplies and reinforcements . The Russians left large quantities of equipment on the route of the march, apparently abandoned following breakdowns, lack of fuel and attacks by the Ukrainians.
Sometimes, especially in north-eastern Ukraine, even entire clusters of vehicles that are fueled and operational, but abandoned, are found. Difficult to explain otherwise than by the desertions.
In the south and in the Donbass, it’s always upside down
The second main battlefront is invariably the southern Black Sea, where the Ukrainians have some success, but they are generally still in a difficult situation. Significantly, the Ukrainian army apparently launched limited counterattacks in the Mykolaiv region, pushing back the furthest Russian troops to the west and north. They had advanced there at the start of the frenzied raids and were apparently unable to hold their ground.
The situation in the south and in the Donbass Photo. Jaroslaw Wolski/map.army
Instead, the Russians seem to be concentrating on the city of Kherson, which they had previously left in Ukrainian hands. Her authorities admitted that she was already completely surrounded. On Tuesday morning, numerous recordings of Russian soldiers entering the city emerged. They did this in an extremely methodical and shrewd way, compared to previous attempts to simply drive into towns as if they weren’t going to defend themselves, resulting in heavy casualties.
Further east, the Russians have evidently largely or completely surrounded (reports are conflicting) the region’s key city, Mariupol. The first records of clashes in the city itself, and not just in its surroundings, have appeared. The city, however, must be turned into a fortress, and its defenders promise tenacious defense.
The Russians are also apparently trying to advance from this region, north towards the area of the major city of Zaporozhye on the Dnieper. On Monday, they announced a peaceful takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant located on the Dnieper. On Tuesday, however, the Ukrainians claimed they had chased the Russians away. They were also to carry out further counterattacks, temporarily pushing the Russians back into the important town of Tokmak, which they had already entered over the weekend. However, there is no certain information about the current situation.
Blocking of a Russian convoy at Melitopol, in the rear of Russian forces moving towards Mariupol and Zaporozhye.
On the other hand, things look bad in the Donbass. There, the Ukrainians are rapidly losing ground, especially in the easternmost region of Lugansk. Russians and separatist militias approach Severodonetsk. The situation gives the impression that the Ukrainians have really left only limited forces in the area of the ceasefire line in the Donbass, because it can be relatively easy to surround them. Let’s hope so, because otherwise a big breach in the Ukrainian lines could open in the central part of eastern Ukraine, where there are no major fights yet.
Kharkiv, on the other hand, again became the target of a major missile attack. In the morning, a cruise missile hit just outside the city government building, where recruitment was organized and the creation of city militias was coordinated. The exact number of victims is not known, but there are several dozen killed and injured.
Invasion tied with a string
In general, the situation still seems difficult from the perspective of Ukrainians. Everywhere you look the Russians are advancing, though in places they are taking heavy casualties and being pushed back in counterattacks. First of all, the Russian army still has a lot of equipment and people at its disposal. According to US intelligence information, about 2/3 of the forces have so far left their starting positions near the Ukrainian borders. It also seems that the Russians are beginning to learn from their unexpected defeats in the early days of the war. This is indicated in particular by the behavior of the soldiers in Kherson or Mariupol, where no one inadvertently tries to enter the cities as if it were their own.
Despite this, the Russians invariably have very serious morale, command, communication and logistical problems. Radio amateurs can even eavesdrop on Russian communication, as it turns out to be largely unencrypted. This points to dothat the Russian army has not strayed from its Soviet roots. You can hear Russian soldiers swearing at untraceable commanders, swearing that no one knows what to do, swearing at supply shortages, and crying after falling into Ukrainian ambushes.
At the same time, the resistance of Ukrainian civilians continues. There are not only recordings of blocking the passage of columns or insults to Russian soldiers. The Ukrainians also organize, steal and destroy abandoned Russian equipment:
Or even throw Molotov cocktails from cars at lone Russian trucks and evacuation vehicles.
The problem is that the first shock of Russian soldiers can turn into anger. They weren’t greeted with flowers like their commanders told them, but they’re directly attacked by just about everyone. This will inevitably lead to the targeting of civilians and increased civilian casualties. The question is whether others will desert and abandon their equipment or shoot at the Ukrainians.
