The latest statement was made by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with British newspaper The Times. He said President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered the military to retake Russian-occupied areas in the south of the country on the Black Sea. Very important from the point of view of the Ukrainian economy.
– We understand that from a political point of view, this is something that our country badly needs. So the president ordered the General Staff to prepare plans, Reznikov said.
Carambola words in the military fog
Announcing the intention of a counter-offensive, even in specific areas, may seem unreasonable. Why reveal your intentions to your opponent? Ukrainians have been doing it for months, and you can guess why. As for months, they evoke the intention to attack the strategic bridge on the strait of Karch. This example shows how it affects Russians.
The aforementioned bridge was built by the Russians at an accelerated pace after the aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and the capture of Crimea. Since the failed attempt to seize the entire Black Sea coast, the peninsula has been completely cut off from Russia. There remains maritime transport. In 2016-19, a rail and road bridge was built across the Karchen Strait, separating Crimea from Russia proper. Today it is one of the main supply routes for the Russian army operating in southern Ukraine, mainly in the Kherson region, or generally for the Russian fleet and aviation in the Crimea same.
The Ukrainians began suggesting an attack on this strategic target in April. Ahead of Russian Victory Day celebrations on May 9, a page with a clock counting down to the alleged attack was even put up. It was actually unrealistic at the time, due to the fact that the Ukrainians did not have adequate weapons for such an operation (too far for missiles, planes would have little chance of reaching, Ukraine did not have fleet) and the bridge’s supposed strong resistance to rockets and bombs.
The Russians publicly ridicule the information. In fact, however, they are not ignoring the Ukrainian threats, although they are so far unfounded. At the beginning of July, two revealing events were observed in the area of the bridge. First, special target barges used by the Russian fleet were anchored nearby. They are designed to be the largest possible target for missiles that use radar to guide themselves to the target. Special objects called radar reflectors have also been placed on nearby islands.
Around the same time, recordings of Russian drivers who, crossing the bridge, became passive participants in the test of the artificial fog system, appeared online. The Russian army has special devices that produce them in huge quantities to hide strategic objects from observation from space and the air. Among other things, they use them to hide their main naval bases when trying to hide something from American satellites. Apparently they also decided to be able to hide the strategic bridge. Probably not only in front of satellites, but also in front of infrared or image-guided missile warheads. Maybe also before the air attack. However, civilians using the bridge were not told about the tests. It was also not closed for the occasion. The result was at least one filmed accident.
Russian actions clearly show that they are not ignoring Ukrainian threats. Which is a smart thing to do, because underestimating an enemy is one of the most serious sins you can commit in wartime. On the other hand, the Ukrainians, with words alone and perhaps some preparations, invisible to us, but to the Russians, forced the enemy to commit resources to defend the strategic bridge. Admittedly, radar targets and fog generators are only a small part of it. Anti-aircraft, anti-missile, and electronic warfare systems must also be hidden from sight and camera from a random driver in the area. They are therefore not in the combat zone in Ukraine.
Defense is not enough for the final victory
Repeated counter-offensive announcements by the Ukrainians can work in a similar way, albeit on a whole different scale. Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to President Zelensky (former officer, analyst and blogger), has been talking about it regularly since the spring and discusses the current situation in Ukraine every day with Mark Feigin, a Russian opponent. During these talks, claims were repeatedly made about a major Ukrainian army offensive in the summer, or in July, August or September, when new Ukrainian reserve brigades, formed from scratch, will be ready . Similar claims are made by various Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian bloggers covering the war. Now officially announced by the Minister of Defence.
In general, this is not surprising. The Ukrainians, wanting to end this war in their own way, that is, most likely to regain control of all or almost all of their territory, can only defend themselves. They must finally hit the Russians and force them to retreat at least partially. Even the most skilful defense, which means a slow retreat, will not convince the Kremlin that continuing the war is meaningless. The Ukrainians therefore seem doomed to attempt a major counter-offensive. Doomed because it will be something incomparably more risky and costly than the limited scale defenses or counter-attacks carried out today.
Nor should it come as a surprise that southern Ukraine is designated as the region of this potential counter-offensive. There the Russians occupied most of the Kherson region along with Kherson itself and the Zaporozhye region, albeit without the main city of Zaporozhye (but in return they Mariupol). This is the greatest Russian victory in this war. It offers them a land connection with Crimea (an alternative to the bridge over the Karchen Strait), allows them to supply the peninsula with water and limits Ukraine’s export opportunities (Mariupol and Kherson are important ports). At the same time, they are more exposed to a Ukrainian counter-attack in this region than in the east of the country, in the Donbass. There they have a strong base on the Russian side border, here supply lines stretched across the Crimea and exposed to partisan attacks through the Zaporizhia region. In addition, the Russians have limited forces in southern Ukraine, as they have assembled the vast majority in Donbass, which is a priority for them. It is not without reason that since April in the Kherson and Zaporozhye region they have not attempted major offensives, but focused on defense. Also, the terrain to attack in these areas is relatively easier than to the east. Less built-up areas, less forests, flatter and fewer obstacles such as rivers and wetlands.
Games and tricks in southern Ukraine
It is therefore hardly surprising that the Ukrainians officially suggest this region as a potential counter-offensive zone. The Russians are certainly aware of this possibility anyway. Despite this, they retain relatively small forces in the south, since, on the one hand, their primary objective seems to be the Donbass, and on the other hand, their reconnaissance probably does not see the transfer of Ukrainian reserves to this region, necessary to a serious counter-offensive. More serious than the one that has been creeping around Kherson since the beginning of June, pushing the Russians back several kilometers.
It is always possible that Ukrainian statements and moves are part of some sort of strategic feint. In times of war, it’s always good to keep the enemy in uncertainty about your intentions. Surprise is one of the most important ingredients for success on the battlefield. The Ukrainian command has already proven that it is very competent, so it must be assumed that it has an idea to play this situation. Perhaps they will continue to talk about a counteroffensive in the south, put pressure on Kherson, and then strike in the area east of Kharkov, passing in the back of the main Russian grouping in the northern Donbass. Perhaps they want to lull the Russians to sleep and annoy them with the vision of a counter-offensive in the south that will never materialize, and then really launch it out of the blue. Or they may simply want to force the Russian military to take their threats seriously enough to withdraw some forces from Donbass, making life easier for Ukrainian defenders who are under heavy pressure there. This may have been partly successful, because after the occupation of the Luhansk region, some Russian troops were transferred to the Zaporozhye front.
It is also possible that the Ukrainians will not be able to carry out a major offensive at all, because the Russians will not allow it. They can do this by continuing to exert strong pressure in the Donbass and thinning out the troops defending there. If the Ukrainians find themselves in a difficult situation, they will need support, for which troops will have to be assigned to a theoretical counteroffensive. They can also strike harder in the Kharkiv region, using troops painstakingly rebuilt since late March after the defeat in kyiv, currently held just across the border in the Belgorod region. And they will force the Ukrainians to send additional forces there to maintain the defense.
As Colonel Piotr Lewandowski said in an interview with Gazeta.pl, the problem is that the Russians still hold the initiative at the operational level. So they decide where and how key fights will take place. A major Ukrainian counter-offensive could take away that advantage and really change the tide of the war. You still have to wait a few months. An offensive in July or August seems like a very optimistic assumption because, as Colonel Lewandowski pointed out, it would be difficult to train Ukrainian reserves to any reasonable extent so quickly. This can also be indicated by the form of Reznikov’s statement. Since he now talks about “making plans”, he can’t come close to trying to implement them.
